Cheryl McCloudFlorida Today
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Editor's note: Here's the latest forecast on Invest 91L, which may become a tropical depression or storm soon.
A system of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has been designated as Invest 91L, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The designation means specialized data is being gathered and forecast models developed for where the system may go.
As of 8 p.m., the National Hurricane Center continued to give the system a 20 percent chance for development over the next 48 hours.
Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the system meanders over the eastern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Even if the system doesn't develop into a tropical depression or storm, forecasters warned it could bring heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of Florida over the weekend as it moves across Florida and into the Atlantic.
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are high enough to support tropical development. Temperatures in the central and eastern Gulf range from the mid-70s to low 80s. For a tropical system to develop, temperatures need to be in the upper 70s or higher, according to AccuWeather.
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An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday, if necessary.
The official start of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. The first named storm of the season will be Arlene.
A sales tax holiday to help Florida residents purchase hurricane supplies runs through June 9. A second 14-day disaster preparedness tax holiday will run Aug. 26 through Sept. 8.
While the first named storm of the 2023 season will be Arlene, it will actually be the second storm of the season. A system in January was classified in May as a subtropical storm. Since the classification came during a post analysis, it did not get a name and will be documented as "Unnamed."
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 p.m. May 31:
What's out there and where are they?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking Invest 91L and four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
- Invest AL91, also known as 91L: An area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast of the center.
- Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave over West Africa is moving west at 19 mph. Exact location: 12W from 14N south to the equator.
- Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is located east of Barbados. It's moving west at 17 mph. Exact location: 41W from 14N south.
- Tropical wave 3: Another tropical wave in the central Atlantic is located a little farther west but remains east of Barbados and Grenada. It's moving west at 15 mph. Exact location: 52W from 11N south.
- Tropical wave 4: A tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea extends south of Jamaica. It's moving west at 11 mph. Exact location: 76/77W from 16N south.
What are chances for tropical development of system in Gulf of Mexico?
Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the system meanders over the eastern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeast toward Florida.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Disturbance designated as Invest 91L. What's an invest?
An invest is a designation used when a weather system is being monitored closely for potential tropical cyclone development. The gathering of specialized data and/or running forecast models take place, according to NOAA.
The designation of a system as an invest does not mean it will develop into a tropical cyclone.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of Florida through the weekend, according to the Hurricane Center.
Heavy downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms will precede the storm's arrival by a few days, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
"The first storms may erupt as early as midweek with the bulk of the downpours and thunderstorms likely from Thursday to Saturday over the peninsula," Douty said.
"It is possible the storms may depart by the weekend, but that will depend on if there is a concise storm center versus a broad area of low pressure."
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather radar: Watch impact of Invest 91L on Florida
The National Weather Service office in Tampa Bay warned residents that tropical moisture will return for the rest of the week, with scattered showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Rainfall over the week could be 1 to 4 inches.
Miami's National Weather Service office also warned residents of the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to street flooding. Some areas could get 1 to 3 inches of rain.
Record rainfall: Florida's rainfall record may soon fall. Current record is almost 2 feet over 24 hours
Florida's east coast can also expect rain as the system moves across the state.
The National Weather Service Melbourne said 1 to 2 inches could fall from Daytona Beach south to Stuart, with the heaviest rain to the south, which could get up to 4 inches.
Jim Cantore comments on Gulf system
Broadcast meteorologist with The Weather Channel, a personality Floridians keep a wary eye on during hurricane season, described the Gulf of Mexico system on Twitter Wednesday morning.
"The gulf is bubbling with broad twisting action."
When does something become a tropical depression or tropical storm?
Both a tropical depression and tropical storm have a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms and a closed low-level circulation, according to NOAA.
- Tropical depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.
- Tropical storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
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